From vessel to warehouse
to market impact
Overwatch turns raw AIS positions into cargo estimates, risk scores, and commodity flow predictions. Connected to Locus for longitudinal intelligence — from port to warehouse to market.
How AIS Vessel Tracking Becomes Commodity Intelligence
AIS is internationally mandated. Every bulk carrier over 300 gross tons broadcasts its position and draft depth. We turn that signal into trade intelligence.
Track
Every bulk carrier, every hour
AIS transponders broadcast vessel positions, draft depth, and destination. We ingest this data across 40 global ports, LNG terminals, mining terminals, and critical maritime chokepoints worldwide — 175 processing engines running 24/7.
Measure
Draft change = cargo volume
When a ship arrives empty and departs loaded, the draft change reveals cargo volume. Non-linear hydrostatic integration using vessel-type-specific Cw(T) polynomial curves, tidal correction, exponential smoothing, and multi-source AIS fusion deliver 79% more accurate cargo estimates than legacy linear formulas.
Predict
Beat official reports by days
We aggregate loading data across all vessels at a port, producing weekly export volume estimates that anticipate official USDA and CONAB reports. Satellite crop health data extends forecasts to 4-8 weeks.
Protect
Sanctions intelligence built in
Dark fleet detection via Froude hull-speed validation and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic position bounding. Entity obfuscation scoring catches shell company networks. STS transfer monitoring, identity change tracking, and P&I coverage. 14 risk factors score every vessel automatically.
Live Commodity Flow Dashboard
Real-time vessel positions, loading events, and export volume estimates — all in one view.
Santos, Brazil
Commodity Flow, Risk & Satellite Intelligence — Week 19, 2026
| Vessel | Draft In | Draft Out | Est. Cargo | Risk | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MV Star Grain | 7.2m | 13.8m | 42,100 t | Low | Departed |
| Nordic Bulk | 6.8m | 14.1m | 48,300 t | Medium | Departed |
| Panamax Glory | 7.5m | 12.9m | 35,700 t | High | Loading |
Intelligence Signals
Every signal, connected.
Two publications. One platform.
The Flow Report
Weekly commodity intelligence
Port-by-port cargo estimates before the USDA, EIA, and CONAB reports drop. Accuracy we publish and track. Free every Thursday.
Read the archives →Axiom Intel
Technical intelligence reports
Deep-dive analysis on maritime intelligence, sanctions evasion patterns, physical-world data science, and the technology powering the Axiom platform.
Commodity AIS Intelligence — How It Works
From draft measurements to risk scoring to satellite crop health — how Axiom Overwatch turns raw vessel data into actionable commodity intelligence.
How accurate are Axiom Overwatch's cargo volume estimates?
Our 10-stage estimation pipeline achieves 6-9% accuracy against USDA and EIA actuals, validated weekly. The pipeline includes tidal correction, EMA draft smoothing, per-vessel-type calibration (bulk=20k, tanker=22k, LNG=8k t/m), velocity filtering, vessel-specific draft curves, self-calibration, and throughput validation with confidence bands.
What is draft-based cargo estimation and how does it work?
When a ship loads cargo, it sinks deeper in the water. We measure the draft change between arrival and departure from AIS data, combined with the vessel's deadweight tonnage and per-vessel calibration curves, to calculate cargo loaded. Our multi-source fusion combines AISStream and VesselFinder data for redundancy.
How far ahead of official reports can Axiom Overwatch predict commodity volumes?
We publish estimates 3-7 days ahead of USDA, EIA, and CONAB weekly reports for grain, petroleum, and mineral commodities. With satellite crop health data from MODIS and Sentinel-2 NDVI analysis across 12 growing regions, we produce 4-8 week forward production and export forecasts.
How does the 13-factor vessel risk scoring system work?
Each vessel receives a 0-100 risk score across 13 weighted factors: AIS gap duration (10%), gap frequency (10%), location risk near STS hotspots (10%), flag state (10%), sanctions match (10%), STS involvement (7.5%), draft anomalies (7.5%), loitering patterns (7.5%), identity manipulation — flag/name/MMSI changes (7.5%), P&I insurance coverage (7.5%), vessel age (5%), prior history (5%), and vessel type (2.5%). Scores decay 10% weekly.
Which ports, terminals, and chokepoints does Axiom Overwatch cover?
40 locations globally: major grain export ports (Santos, Houston, New Orleans, Paranagua, Rouen), LNG terminals (Sabine Pass, Cameron, Freeport, Cove Point, Corpus Christi), mining terminals (Port Hedland, Newcastle, Richards Bay, Hay Point, Gladstone), European hubs (Rotterdam, Hamburg, Antwerp), and critical chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz, English Channel, Suez Canal, Malacca Strait, Panama Canal).
Does Axiom Overwatch have an API?
Yes — 54 REST API endpoints covering vessel positions, export estimates, risk scores, congestion indices, trade route flows, satellite crop health, commodity prices, weather data, and more. Free tier includes 50 requests/day with 7 days of history. Starter ($49/mo) and Pro ($199/mo) tiers offer higher limits and full data access.
What satellite data does Axiom Overwatch use for crop intelligence?
We ingest MODIS and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to compute NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) across 12 major crop-producing regions. This feeds into crop health assessments, yield estimates, and production forecasts that directly adjust our port export predictions.
What is dark fleet detection?
Dark fleet detection identifies vessels that turn off their AIS transponders — a common tactic for sanctions evasion, illegal transfers, and smuggling. Axiom Overwatch runs automated gap detection every 2 hours, scoring each gap event against proximity to known STS hotspots, vessel risk profile, and historical patterns.