From vessel to warehouse
to market impact
Overwatch turns AIS positions into cargo estimates, sanctions risk, H3 density, and commodity-flow context. Connected to Locus for longitudinal intelligence - from port to warehouse to market.
How AIS Vessel Tracking Becomes Commodity Intelligence
AIS is internationally mandated. Every bulk carrier over 300 gross tons broadcasts its position and draft depth. We turn that signal into trade intelligence.
Track
AIS positions into Codex rows
AIS transponders broadcast vessel positions, draft depth, and destination. Overwatch normalizes those broadcasts into 95M+ Codex-backed rows with vessel, port, route, and H3 density context.
Measure
Draft change = cargo volume
When a ship arrives empty and departs loaded, the draft change can reveal cargo volume. The platform keeps draft, vessel, and confidence evidence inspectable instead of presenting a black-box number.
Predict
Port flow context
Overwatch aggregates vessel movement, loading evidence, and congestion context into port and commodity-flow views that can be compared with official reports when they publish.
Protect
Sanctions intelligence built in
Dark fleet detection, STS transfer monitoring, identity change tracking, P&I coverage, and OFAC screening are attached to the same vessel record analysts review.
Live Commodity Flow Dashboard
Real-time vessel positions, loading events, and export volume estimates — all in one view.
Santos, Brazil
Commodity Flow, Risk & Satellite Intelligence — Week 25, 2026
| Vessel | Draft In | Draft Out | Est. Cargo | Risk | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MV Star Grain | 7.2m | 13.8m | 42,100 t | Low | Departed |
| Nordic Bulk | 6.8m | 14.1m | 48,300 t | Medium | Departed |
| Panamax Glory | 7.5m | 12.9m | 35,700 t | High | Loading |
Intelligence Signals
Every signal, connected.
Two publications. One platform.
The Flow Report
Weekly commodity intelligence
Port-by-port cargo estimates before the USDA, EIA, and CONAB reports drop. Accuracy we publish and track. Free every Thursday.
Read the archives →Axiom Intel
Technical intelligence reports
Deep-dive analysis on maritime intelligence, sanctions evasion patterns, physical-world data science, and the technology powering the Axiom platform.
Commodity AIS Intelligence — How It Works
From draft measurements to risk scoring to satellite crop health — how Axiom Overwatch turns raw vessel data into actionable commodity intelligence.
How accurate are Axiom Overwatch's cargo volume estimates?
Cargo estimates are presented with their underlying draft, vessel, and confidence evidence. The workflow is designed for analyst review against published trade and port records, not as an unqualified accuracy claim.
What is draft-based cargo estimation and how does it work?
When a ship loads cargo, it sinks deeper in the water. We measure the draft change between arrival and departure from AIS data, combined with the vessel's deadweight tonnage and per-vessel calibration curves, to calculate cargo loaded. Our multi-source fusion combines AISStream and VesselFinder data for redundancy.
How far ahead of official reports can Axiom Overwatch predict commodity volumes?
Overwatch builds flow context before official reports publish, then lets analysts compare vessel, port, and trade-record evidence once those reports are available.
How does vessel risk screening work?
Risk workflows attach AIS gaps, STS proximity, identity changes, P&I coverage, OFAC screening, and vessel-history evidence to the same dossier so a reviewer can inspect why a vessel was flagged.
Which ports, terminals, and chokepoints does Axiom Overwatch cover?
The public coverage map catalogs major grain export ports, LNG terminals, mining terminals, European hubs, and critical chokepoints. Production coverage is tied to available AIS, port-event, and Codex source feeds.
Does Axiom Overwatch have an API?
Yes. API and export workflows cover vessel positions, risk evidence, congestion indices, trade route flows, entity links, and Codex-normalized maritime records.
What satellite data does Axiom Overwatch use for crop intelligence?
We use MODIS and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to compute NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) as crop-health context for commodity-flow review. Satellite signals are presented as supporting evidence alongside vessel, port, and trade records.
What is dark fleet detection?
Dark fleet detection identifies vessels that stop broadcasting AIS positions, which can indicate sanctions evasion, illegal transfers, smuggling, or benign coverage gaps. Axiom Overwatch attaches each gap to vessel history, nearby STS context, and risk evidence so analysts can review the basis for the flag.