The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Hamburg leads with 48.0h median wait and 62 vessels waiting.
6% of Active Hex Cells Account for 71% of Encounter Events. The Resolution-8 Density Distribution Breaks Most Anomaly Models.
18,400 active vessel-density hex cells, 6% of them account for 71% of encounter events. The 63× gap between median and p99 cells means anomaly models calibrated on fleet averages systematically fail in the places that matter most....
2,241 Vessels Made an Unexplained 94-Degree Course Change at 7 Knots Last Month. They Were Avoiding Something That Wasn't Broadcasting AIS.
2,241 unique vessels made an unexplained ~94 degree course change at 7 knots in the last 30 days. The model's strongest hypothesis is that they were avoiding a head-on AIS-dark target.
57% of Predicted Hormuz Transits Disappear Before They Reach the Exit Zone. Bab-el-Mandeb Loses 9%.
687 of 1,196 predicted Strait of Hormuz transits in the last 30 days never reappeared in the exit zone. The miss rate is six times higher than at Bab-el-Mandeb.