The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
0 positions59k vessels·76 engines
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Rouen leads with 27.0h median wait and 22 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisJun 26, 2026·4 min read
Gulf Anchorage Rings Produce 61% of Dark Events. They Represent 28% of Tracked Vessel-Hours.
Gulf anchorage rings generate 3.2× more dark events per vessel-hour than Pacific ports. 61% of the last 45 days of dark events came from five Gulf clusters representing 28% of vessel-hours....
45period days2066critical tier count61gulf dark event pct9841gulf dark events 45d
DARK-EVENTSGULF-ANCHORAGEPORT-CLUSTERVESSEL-HOURSAIS-OPACITYGEOGRAPHIC-ASYMMETRY
Read article
🔍Analysis
124,170 Unsubtyped Dark Events. Subtype Classifiers Have Been Silent Since May 20. 2,066 of Them Are Critical.
The subtype classification pipeline stopped on May 20. Since then, 124,170 dark events — including 2,066 with critical risk scores — have been detected with no behavioral label. The detection pipeline never paused.
Jun 23, 2026·5 min
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-FREEZE
🔍Analysis
AIS_manipulation_dark Overtook STS Three Weeks Ago. 26,246 Alerts. Zero Acknowledged.
The dominant behavioral motif in the maritime queue crossed over the week of June 1. 26,246 AIS_manipulation_dark alerts. Zero acknowledgments across 46,935 queued alerts.
Jun 23, 2026·6 min
AIS-MANIPULATION-DARKMOTIF-ALERTS
Archive
A New Motif Fired for the First Time Yesterday. 55 High-Severity Alerts, Zero Acknowledged, Entering a 44,573-Deep Queue.
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 19, 2026The Vessel Ownership Graph Has Produced Zero New Records in 34 Days. Every Active Temporal Edge Is Now an Obfuscation Event.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHOWNERSHIP-FREEZE
Jun 16, 2026Give-Way Inaction in Approach Channels Produces 0.251nm Average CPA — the Tightest Geometry in 1.97 Million Encounters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 16, 202663% of Nighttime Vessel-Hours Concentrate in 8% of H3 Cells. They Are Offshore Anchorage Rings, Not Port Approaches.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jun 12, 202683.3% Coverage Is Not 83.3% Accuracy: Only 1.24% of Vessel Visits Use a Draft-Survey-Derived Cargo Estimate
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATION
Jun 9, 2026Anchorage Encounters Produce Rule 17 Deviations at a Higher Rate Than Approach Channels. 1.9 Million Encounters Across Three Contexts.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERRULE17
Jun 9, 2026Rule 17 Stand-On Vessel Class: Tankers Are Named in 31% of Extremis Events and Represent 22% of the Tracked Fleet
RULE17STAND-ON-VESSEL
Jun 5, 20264,361 STS Transfer Alerts in 45 Days. Zero Acknowledged. Ship-to-Ship Transfer Is Now the Dominant Behavioral Motif.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 2, 202671,663 Approach Channel Encounters Ended With Give-Way Failure. Average CPA: 0.247nm — the Closest of Any Context in the Dataset.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 2, 20268,400 Dark Events in 45 Days. The Nav Status at Gap-Start Cuts the Actionable Queue by 14%.
DARK-EVENTSNAV-STATUS
May 29, 20262,894 Vessel Loitering Events in 45 Days. Two Reached High Risk. Context Determines the Classification.
LOITERING-EVENTSRISK-TIER
May 26, 2026Norfolk Bulk Carriers Wait 127 Hours. Houston Median Is 9. One Statistic Contains Both Facts.
PORT-CONGESTIONBULK-CARRIER
May 26, 202697% of Dark Events Get No Subtype. The 3% That Do Run 8x Longer.
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-TAXONOMY
May 22, 2026Every vessel page now carries an ownership dossier
VESSEL-INTELLIGENCECORPORATE-IDENTITY
May 22, 20262,607 Vessels Reappeared at Physically Impossible Locations in 30 Days. The Subtype Is Called impossible_kinematics.
IMPOSSIBLE-KINEMATICSDARK-EVENTS
May 19, 2026Mexico Leads US Grain Export Events at 129. China Receives 43. China's Per-Event Volume Is 56% Higher. The Difference Is Vessel Class.
GRAIN-DESTINATIONBULK-CARGO
May 19, 20265.3% of the Vessel Graph Is Mutation Edges. Shell Hops Average 13-Day Tenure. That Asymmetry Is the Screening Problem.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHRELATION-TYPE
May 15, 20264,433 COLREGS Encounters, Zero Analyst Reviews. Head-On Events Need 23.8 Degrees and Carry the Least Classifier Certainty.
COLREGS-ENCOUNTERSCOMPLIANCE-DEFICIT
May 12, 2026Open Water Is Where Vessels Come Closest. 16.7% of Open-Sea Encounters Pass Within 0.1nm — 49% More Than Anchorage.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERCPA-GEOMETRY
May 12, 20266% of Active Hex Cells Account for 71% of Encounter Events. The Resolution-8 Density Distribution Breaks Most Anomaly Models.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
May 8, 20262,241 Vessels Made an Unexplained 94-Degree Course Change at 7 Knots Last Month. They Were Avoiding Something That Wasn't Broadcasting AIS.
GHOST-VESSELSSOLO-MANEUVERS
May 7, 202657% of Predicted Hormuz Transits Disappear Before They Reach the Exit Zone. Bab-el-Mandeb Loses 9%.
CHOKEPOINT-TRANSITSSTRAIT-OF-HORMUZ
May 7, 20264,578 High-Severity Behavioral Motifs, Zero Acknowledged: AIS Manipulation Makes Up 42% of the Fleet Alert Stack
MOTIF-ALERTSAIS-MANIPULATION
May 5, 2026197 Shell Hops, 425 MMSI Changes, 383 Renames: The 1,005 Identity Mutation Events in 33 Days
VESSEL-IDENTITYSHELL-HOPS
May 5, 202647% of Vessel Visits Do Not Have Draft Data. The Cargo Estimate You Are Reading Is a Fallback.
HYDROSTATICCARGO-ESTIMATION
May 1, 2026Rule 17 in the Wild: 72,113 Handoffs, 75% Extremis, and What That Says About Who Is Actually Avoiding Collisions
RULE17COLREGS
May 1, 2026Port Dwell Distributions: Newcastle 2.8×, Houston 13.6×. The Tail Ratio Predicts Demurrage Risk.
DWELL-TIMELAYTIME-RISK
Apr 29, 20266.4% of AIS Pings Don't Say Where They're Going. The Rest Spell Houston Seven Different Ways.
DESTINATION-RELIABILITYDECLARED-VS-ACTUAL
Apr 28, 2026Recalibrating Risk Tiers Surfaces 1,702 Dark Events; 66% Cluster in the Singapore Strait
RISK-TIER-RECALIBRATIONSINGAPORE-STRAIT
Apr 28, 2026Singapore Strait Holds 65% Ship-to-Ship Share While Rotterdam Climbs to 59%: The STS Subtype Reads Differently From the Atlas
STS-TRANSFERSDARK-EVENTS
Apr 27, 2026Dark Events Across Eight Chokepoints: Every Port Has Its Own Gap-Duration Risk Curve
DARK-EVENTSCHOKEPOINT-ATLAS
Apr 24, 2026Draft-Survey Commodity Flow Estimates: 13.2M Tons at US Gulf, 2.4M Tons at Newcastle, and the Mississippi Spring Constraint
DRAFT-SURVEYCOMMODITY-FLOW
Apr 24, 2026Vessel Identity Risk: How Flag State, Class Rarity, Phantom Fleets, and Name Changes Each Contribute to the Same Sanctions Exposure
VESSEL-IDENTITYFLAG-STATE
Apr 24, 2026Vessel-Class Kinematic Signatures: Tanker Noise, Bulk Precision, and the 6× Gap Where Spoofing Hides
KINEMATIC-FINGERPRINTINGVESSEL-CLASS-ATLAS
Apr 24, 2026From Field to Port: How We Built Commodity Intelligence From Five Government APIs
COMMODITY INTELLIGENCEGRAIN FLOWS
Apr 10, 2026What Axiom Overwatch Is — and Who It's For
AXIOM-OVERWATCHMARITIME-INTELLIGENCE
Apr 9, 2026How We Turn AIS Signals into Maritime Intelligence
METHODOLOGYAIS-DATA
Apr 9, 2026Recent Departures
A2B PROUDRotterdam · grain
17ktIRENES REMEDYHamburg · grain
21ktTRANS HAVRotterdam · grain
11ktPOLYBOTESAntwerp · grain
21ktVOX APOLONIAHamburg · unknown
12ktMOSCOW MAERSKRotterdam · grain
65kt