The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
158.8M positions81k vessels·76 engines
67 reports
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Singapore leads with 41.8h median wait and 805 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisJul 14, 2026·5 min read
41% of Global AIS Positions Come From "Other." That Category Has No Informative Classification. It Also Has the Most Positions.
41.3% of all AIS positions in the last 28 days came from the "other" vessel type — the unclassified catch-all. 93.3% of all positions landed in the top 10% of H3 cells....
28window days41.3other type pct529820active h3 cells24787359total positions
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLSOTHER-VESSEL-TYPEAIS-CLASSIFICATIONCONCENTRATION
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🔍Analysis
246,754 Open-Sea Give-Way Inaction Encounters in 90 Days. 51% End in Rule 17 Deviation. No One Is Watching This Context.
246,754 open-sea give-way inaction encounters in 90 days. 51.1% end in Rule 17 deviation with median DCPA of 0.114nm — the same geometry as approach channels at 4.9× the volume.
Jul 14, 2026·5 min
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
🔍Analysis
Ship-to-Ship Transfer Has Retaken the 30-Day Lead. 95.5% of Dark Manipulation Alerts Are Sub-Max Confidence. The Combined Queue Is 76,315 Alerts With Zero Reviews.
STS filed 24,191 alerts in the last 30 days — 717 more than dark manipulation. STS runs at 1.000 confidence. Dark runs at 0.820. Neither queue has a single acknowledgment.
Jul 10, 2026·4 min
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
Archive
Extremis Is the Dominant Rule 17 Path. Every One of the 669,182 Closed Within 185 Meters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTEREXTREMIS-TRIGGER
Jul 7, 2026AIS Position Spoofing Went Silent 53 Days Ago. Dark Manipulation Filed 27,318 Alerts in the Same Month.
AIS-MANIPULATION-SPOOFAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
Jul 7, 2026The Vessel Ownership Layer Has Been Frozen for 52 Days. The 843 Vessels With Obfuscated Identity Edges Don't Show Up Anywhere Else in the Graph.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHIDENTITY-OBFUSCATION
Jul 3, 2026A 5th Motif Class Entered the Queue at Maximum Confidence. The Other 4 Have Produced 66,973 Alerts in 88 Days. Zero Have Been Reviewed.
DESTINATION-LAUNDERINGMOTIF-ALERTS
Jul 3, 2026Gulf Anchorage Rings Produce 61% of Dark Events. They Represent 28% of Tracked Vessel-Hours.
DARK-EVENTSGULF-ANCHORAGE
Jun 26, 2026AIS_manipulation_dark Overtook STS Three Weeks Ago. 26,246 Alerts. Zero Acknowledged.
AIS-MANIPULATION-DARKMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 23, 2026124,170 Unsubtyped Dark Events. Subtype Classifiers Have Been Silent Since May 20. 2,066 of Them Are Critical.
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-FREEZE
Jun 23, 2026A New Motif Fired for the First Time Yesterday. 55 High-Severity Alerts, Zero Acknowledged, Entering a 44,573-Deep Queue.
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 19, 2026Give-Way Inaction in Approach Channels Produces 0.251nm Average CPA — the Tightest Geometry in 1.97 Million Encounters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 16, 2026The Vessel Ownership Graph Has Produced Zero New Records in 34 Days. Every Active Temporal Edge Is Now an Obfuscation Event.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHOWNERSHIP-FREEZE
Jun 16, 202663% of Nighttime Vessel-Hours Concentrate in 8% of H3 Cells. They Are Offshore Anchorage Rings, Not Port Approaches.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jun 12, 2026Anchorage Encounters Produce Rule 17 Deviations at a Higher Rate Than Approach Channels. 1.9 Million Encounters Across Three Contexts.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERRULE17
Jun 9, 202683.3% Coverage Is Not 83.3% Accuracy: Only 1.24% of Vessel Visits Use a Draft-Survey-Derived Cargo Estimate
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATION
Jun 9, 2026Rule 17 Stand-On Vessel Class: Tankers Are Named in 31% of Extremis Events and Represent 22% of the Tracked Fleet
RULE17STAND-ON-VESSEL
Jun 5, 202671,663 Approach Channel Encounters Ended With Give-Way Failure. Average CPA: 0.247nm — the Closest of Any Context in the Dataset.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 2, 20264,361 STS Transfer Alerts in 45 Days. Zero Acknowledged. Ship-to-Ship Transfer Is Now the Dominant Behavioral Motif.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 2, 20268,400 Dark Events in 45 Days. The Nav Status at Gap-Start Cuts the Actionable Queue by 14%.
DARK-EVENTSNAV-STATUS
May 29, 2026Recent Departures
FRONTIER SPIRITSingapore · grain
11ktMANOALos Angeles · grain
34ktAMARANTHAntwerp · petroleum
13ktTIHAMARotterdam · grain
19ktAQUATIC WARRIORAntwerp · unknown
42ktKING MILONewcastle · coal
41kt