The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
158.8M positions81k vessels·76 engines
63 analysis reports
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Singapore leads with 39.1h median wait and 804 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisMay 26, 2026·4 min read
2,894 Vessel Loitering Events in 45 Days. Two Reached High Risk. Context Determines the Classification.
2,894 loitering events in 45 days. Two high-risk. The difference between them and the rest was not duration or speed — it was where they stopped....
45window days2026-05-22latest event2894total events2026-05-18high risk date
LOITERING-EVENTSRISK-TIERHOTSPOT-VICINITYSLOW-ROLLAIS-PATTERN
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🔍Analysis
Norfolk Bulk Carriers Wait 127 Hours. Houston Median Is 9. One Statistic Contains Both Facts.
Norfolk bulk carriers wait 127 hours. Houston median is 9. LA is 1. The 127x spread is the current range of US port exposure — not theoretical, measured.
May 26, 2026·4 min
PORT-CONGESTIONBULK-CARRIER
🔍Analysis
97% of Dark Events Get No Subtype. The 3% That Do Run 8x Longer.
97% of dark events in the last 30 days carry no subtype classification. The 3% that do run 7-8x longer — nav_status gaps average 92 hours against a fleet-wide 13.4 hours, and carry the highest risk score of any class.
May 22, 2026·4 min
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-TAXONOMY
Archive
2,607 Vessels Reappeared at Physically Impossible Locations in 30 Days. The Subtype Is Called impossible_kinematics.
IMPOSSIBLE-KINEMATICSDARK-EVENTS
May 19, 2026Mexico Leads US Grain Export Events at 129. China Receives 43. China's Per-Event Volume Is 56% Higher. The Difference Is Vessel Class.
GRAIN-DESTINATIONBULK-CARGO
May 19, 20265.3% of the Vessel Graph Is Mutation Edges. Shell Hops Average 13-Day Tenure. That Asymmetry Is the Screening Problem.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHRELATION-TYPE
May 15, 2026Open Water Is Where Vessels Come Closest. 16.7% of Open-Sea Encounters Pass Within 0.1nm — 49% More Than Anchorage.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERCPA-GEOMETRY
May 12, 20264,433 COLREGS Encounters, Zero Analyst Reviews. Head-On Events Need 23.8 Degrees and Carry the Least Classifier Certainty.
COLREGS-ENCOUNTERSCOMPLIANCE-DEFICIT
May 12, 20266% of Active Hex Cells Account for 71% of Encounter Events. The Resolution-8 Density Distribution Breaks Most Anomaly Models.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
May 8, 202657% of Predicted Hormuz Transits Disappear Before They Reach the Exit Zone. Bab-el-Mandeb Loses 9%.
CHOKEPOINT-TRANSITSSTRAIT-OF-HORMUZ
May 7, 20262,241 Vessels Made an Unexplained 94-Degree Course Change at 7 Knots Last Month. They Were Avoiding Something That Wasn't Broadcasting AIS.
GHOST-VESSELSSOLO-MANEUVERS
May 7, 2026197 Shell Hops, 425 MMSI Changes, 383 Renames: The 1,005 Identity Mutation Events in 33 Days
VESSEL-IDENTITYSHELL-HOPS
May 5, 20264,578 High-Severity Behavioral Motifs, Zero Acknowledged: AIS Manipulation Makes Up 42% of the Fleet Alert Stack
MOTIF-ALERTSAIS-MANIPULATION
May 5, 2026Rule 17 in the Wild: 72,113 Handoffs, 75% Extremis, and What That Says About Who Is Actually Avoiding Collisions
RULE17COLREGS
May 1, 202647% of Vessel Visits Do Not Have Draft Data. The Cargo Estimate You Are Reading Is a Fallback.
HYDROSTATICCARGO-ESTIMATION
May 1, 2026Port Dwell Distributions: Newcastle 2.8×, Houston 13.6×. The Tail Ratio Predicts Demurrage Risk.
DWELL-TIMELAYTIME-RISK
Apr 29, 2026Recalibrating Risk Tiers Surfaces 1,702 Dark Events; 66% Cluster in the Singapore Strait
RISK-TIER-RECALIBRATIONSINGAPORE-STRAIT
Apr 28, 20266.4% of AIS Pings Don't Say Where They're Going. The Rest Spell Houston Seven Different Ways.
DESTINATION-RELIABILITYDECLARED-VS-ACTUAL
Apr 28, 2026Singapore Strait Holds 65% Ship-to-Ship Share While Rotterdam Climbs to 59%: The STS Subtype Reads Differently From the Atlas
STS-TRANSFERSDARK-EVENTS
Apr 27, 2026Dark Events Across Eight Chokepoints: Every Port Has Its Own Gap-Duration Risk Curve
DARK-EVENTSCHOKEPOINT-ATLAS
Apr 24, 2026Recent Departures
AMIS TREASUREHamburg · grain
33ktRWS 79Antwerp · unknown
71ktFRONTIER SPIRITSingapore · grain
11ktMANOALos Angeles · grain
34ktAMARANTHAntwerp · petroleum
13ktTIHAMARotterdam · grain
19kt