The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
67 reports
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Singapore leads with 39.1h median wait and 804 vessels waiting.
Dark Events Across Eight Chokepoints: Every Port Has Its Own Gap-Duration Risk Curve
30,000+ AIS dark events in 30 days across Singapore, Norfolk, Houston, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and the Channel entrance. The global pattern of short-gap risk inverts at Singapore and Hamburg and holds at the rest. A full atlas of gap-duration risk curves, impossible-kinematics rates, and per-port detection priors....
Vessel-Class Kinematic Signatures: Tanker Noise, Bulk Precision, and the 6× Gap Where Spoofing Hides
Kinematic fingerprinting treats each vessel class as its own behavioral distribution. Across 1,555 vessels at Santos and 804 globally, residuals vary by 6× and the prior-vs-actual divergence hits 6.6×. A full atlas of tanker, bulk, general cargo, "other", LNG, and load-state signatures.
Draft-Survey Commodity Flow Estimates: 13.2M Tons at US Gulf, 2.4M Tons at Newcastle, and the Mississippi Spring Constraint
The draft-survey method estimates cargo from the difference between arrival and departure drafts via AIS. Across 1,705 US grain vessels and 35 Newcastle coal carriers, the estimate arrives eight weeks before USDA. The Mississippi spring constraint exposes the method's weakest assumption.